Probability of asteroid striking Earth in the next decade increases, NASA says
CHICAGO -- The chances of an asteroid striking Earth within the next decade has more than doubled in a matter of weeks, according to NASA astronomers.
The asteroid, discovered just after Christmas and named 2024 YR4, could strike the planet in December of 2032, according to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies.
When the detection of the asteroid was announced last month, NASA predicted just a 1.3% probability of it hitting Earth. The likelihood has increased to 3.1%.
The overall probability may be low, but more than a 2% chance of an asteroid strike is "uncommon," Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told ABC News.
"Getting something with a probability ... like 2% is high for us," he said.
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known.
On the Torino scale -- the method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects -- 2024 YR4 is ranking at three out of 10, Farnocchia said, adding that most space objects rank at a zero.
The object was discovered in late December as it made a close approach towards Earth, but it is now moving away, Farnocchia said.
The elongated shape of the orbit takes the asteroid around the sun and into Earth's vicinity before it ventures far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.
Because of the unusual orbit, the asteroid will disappear starting in April until 2028, according to NASA.
The uncertainty surrounding this space rock is still prominent as astronomers race to find out as much as they can about the asteroid before they lose sight of it.
"We don't want to take any chances," Farnocchia said.
NASA will use the Webb Space Telescope, the largest, most powerful telescope ever launched into space, to measure the asteroids orbit as accurately as possible, the agency announced on Monday. The Webb telescope will also enable astronomers to study the infrared light that 2024 YR4 emits, rather than the visible light it reflects, which can offer a much better estimate of an asteroids size.
The asteroid measures between 130 feet and 330 feet in diameter and large enough to potentially cause localized damage were it to strike a populated city, according to NASA.
In 1908, the Tunguska asteroid, which was a similar size, flattened trees over an area of about 1,250 miles after it exploded in the skies over Siberia.
The worldwide astronomy community is paying close attention to this asteroid and any others that could potentially impact the planet using multiple telescopes as well as measurements to detail the objects' positions in space, Farnocchia said.
"We are tracking this object every night," he said.
