The 49ers' road to the playoffs is murky: Is Sunday a must-win?

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- As a captain and one of the longest-tenured players on the San Francisco 49ers, tight end George Kittle doesn't just project maximum optimism and confidence at all times. He lives it, breathes it and never stops trying to inject his positive energy into the locker room.

After a 38-10 loss at the hands of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, Kittle strode to the podium for his postmortem and was asked if that optimism ever wanes, especially in the face of the team's worst defeat since 2018.

"Why would it?" Kittle said. "We're not where we want to be by any means. Losing by 28, it's horrible. We don't want to do that. ... But all my optimism is not broken.

"We still have a lot of very talented players. We will get some guys back and I still have full trust in the coaching staff to put our guys in position to make plays and I've got no worry about that. But definitely an uphill grind and going to see what we're made of, which I'm looking forward to."

While optimism is part and parcel of Kittle's job description, it's increasingly difficult for anyone on the outside to believe that these 49ers have another finishing flourish like they've found in recent seasons in their back pocket.

The loss to the Packers dropped the 49ers to 5-6, leaving them under. 500 for the first time in Week 12 or later since the injury-ridden, playoff-less 2020 season. And though they got some help in the NFC West division (Rams and Cardinals lost) to stay just a game out of first place, the 49ers are running out of time to get healthy and/or fix the issues that have persisted throughout this season.

Even if the Niners stop collecting silly penalties, turning the ball over, missing tackles, being a disaster on special teams and any of their other pressing problems, nothing will come easy against a remaining schedule that ESPN's Football Power Index ranks as the third hardest in the NFL.

That begins with a cross-country trip to face the 9-2Buffalo Bills (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) but also includes a Dec. 30 home meeting with the No. 1 Detroit Lions(10-1).

The Bills, who have yet to lose at home this season, average the third-most points per game (29.1) in the NFL. Their defense allows 19.5 points per game (seventh best).

All of which leaves the Niners barely clinging to whatever is left of their playoff hopes.

FPI gives them a 17% chance to make the postseason with a 13.6% shot at winning the division, which ranks behind both the Cardinals (49%) and Seahawks (24.9%). FTN's DVOA is even more down on San Francisco's chances, assigning it an 11.5% postseason possibility with a 7.9% chance to claim the NFC West and a 3.6% shot at a wild-card berth.

While the 49ers stared lengthy playoff odds in the face as recently as 2021 and made it to the NFC Championship Game, this group has little to no margin for error the rest of the way. They could, perhaps, overcome a single loss. Two would likely be a death knell.

"We know what we got ahead of us. We know exactly what that playoff situation is. That is what it is," coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday. "But really all that matters is this week. When you do need to go on a run and put a lot of wins to even think of that, then you better make sure you're only thinking of one thing and that's Buffalo."

Because San Francisco is 1-3 in the division and the best they can do is 3-3, they're likely to require help in the event of any tiebreaker. From the wild card perspective, a 3-5 record against NFC foes also won't serve the Niners well.

Of course, any such discussion of help from elsewhere is reliant on them stringing wins together in the final six weeks, something that hasn't happened all year -- they've won two straight games once this season.

Coming out of the Week 9 bye, the 49ers hoped running backChristian McCaffrey's return would galvanize them. So far, that hasn't happened. He's averaging 93.7 scrimmage yards through three games with no touchdowns.

An argument could be made that San Francisco is not only worse for the wear injury-wise now than it was before McCaffrey returned but also has even more problems.

For example, the 49ers are averaging 8.7 penalties per game since the bye, tied for the eighth most in the NFL in that span. Suddenly, they rank 21st in the NFL in total penalties with many of those flags coming in costly situations.

The 49ers have minus-8.31 expected points added on offensive penalties (26th) and minus-8.21 EPA on defensive penalties (28th) while losing four of their games by a combined 14 points.

"We've got to be much better with the penalties," Shanahan acknowledged. "When you are missing some guys, you do have to be better."

Perhaps Sunday's blowout loss to Green Bay was easy to see coming because of who the Niners didn't have.

But they're optimistic they'll get quarterback Brock Purdy (right shoulder) back on Wednesday, as he did light throwing on Monday without issue. EndNick Bosa (left oblique) and tackle Trent Williams (ankle) will be listed day-to-day after missing Sunday's game.

The practice window for linebacker Dre Greenlaw (torn Achilles) has been opened and he will practice for the first time Wednesday.CornerbackCharvarius Ward (personal) could also return as soon as this week. But this season has offered many reminders that as soon as one player returns, two more might suffer an injury.

"I'm hoping that guys will take care of their bodies stuff here over the day and a half they're away from us. We'll come back Wednesday ... ready to fight because that's all we can do right now is just fight our butts off," Shanahan said Monday. "And I'll be very surprised that not every guy in this building when I see them Wednesday isn't ready for that exact mindset that we're going to need to pull off what we feel we can."

Kittle, Bosa and linebacker Fred Warnerdo think they have the guys in the locker room to pull off one more push toward the postseason. Even as evidence mounts to the contrary.

"We have really good players who have been in tough positions before and we have got to go win some games," Bosa said. "So, either we win and make the season what we wanted it to be from the start or we let it slip. But we're going to push as hard as we can."br/]