Recession risks are rising, economists say. Here's what to know.

Recession fears are mounting on Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs and Moodys Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn.

President Donald Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a recession in remarks to reporters on Sunday.

The warnings coincided with a market plunge touched off by U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China, some of which were delayed. Retaliatory tariffs issued by China on Monday deepened a trade war between the worlds two largest economies.

"The threat of a recession is real," said Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. regional economics at Fitch Ratings. "Its a threat you cannot ignore."

Heres what to know about rising concern about a recession, whats driving it and what it could mean for you:

The r-word is popping up

Recession signals have begun to flash warnings, some analysts told ABC News.

Many observers define a recession through the shorthand metric of two consecutive quarters of decline in a nations inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or GDP

In recent weeks, the stock market has plunged, consumer attitudes have soured and a jobs report has delivered worse-than-expected results.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys Analytics, told ABC News his firm raised its gauge of the probability of a recession to 35%.

"Thats uncomfortably high -- and its rising," Zandi said.

Goldman Sachs last week hiked its odds of a recession from 15% to 20%. J.P. Morgan Chase economists pegged the chances of a recession this year at 40%, citing "extreme U.S. policies," Bloomberg reported.

Stephan Weiler, a professor of economics at Colorado State University and a former Fed research officer, echoed concern about the growing risk of a recession.

"We went from a very low probability in January to a realistic possibility at this stage, just weeks later," Weiler said. "The r-word is popping up all of a sudden."

Have Trumps policies increased the likelihood of a recession?

Experts who spoke to ABC News attributed rising recession risk largely to the Trump administrations policies, especially recent tariffs.

The Trump administration last week slapped 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% tariffs on imports from China. The fresh round of duties on Chinese goods doubled an initial set of tariffs placed on China last month.

A day later, Trump issued a one-month delay for tariffs on auto-related goods from Mexico and Canada. The carve-out expanded soon afterward with an additional one-month pause for goods from Mexico and Canada compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, a free trade agreement.

The economic damage had already been done, experts said. Canada and China both retaliated with tariffs on some U.S. imports.

Looming tariffs risk unease among businesses and shoppers, potentially sinking the economy, Sonola said.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, could slowly fade away as households bolster savings to ease the blow of a potential downturn, Sonola said. Meanwhile, businesses could slash their investments, which make up about 15% of gross domestic product, he added.

"Thats the biggest fear," Sonola said.

When asked about a potential recession in an interview broadcast on Sunday, Trump said tariffs imposed in recent days could bring about a "period of transition."

"I hate to predict things like that," Trump told Fox News in an interview taped on Thursday. "It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us."

In a series of social media posts last month, Trump said he would place tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for hosting the manufacture and transport of illicit drugs that end up in the U.S.

During an address to a joint session of Congress last week, Trump also sharply criticized tariffs imposed by China and Canada on U.S. goods.

"President Trump continues to demonstrate his commitment to ensuring U.S. trade policy serves the national interest," the White House said in a statement last week.

What would a recession mean for everyday people?

A recession would put millions of Americans out of work, cripple many businesses and risk exacerbating the country's national debt, analysts told ABC News.

An initial business slowdown can trigger layoffs, which in turn hammers consumer pocketbooks, triggering a further slowdown of business activity that may set off a self-perpetuating cycle.

"Recessions are bad," Zandi said. "People lose jobs, income and wealth."

"If you're already without means, you have to make some really hard choices: Do I pay my credit card bill, fill my gas tank or cut my budget on groceries?" Zandi noted.

Ultimately, the likelihood of a recession may boil down to the direction of White House policy, Sonola said.

"It's really anybody's guess at this point," Sonola added.