First bets: Early picks for NFL Week 7
Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season could be pivotal for several teams around the league. The week kicks off with the Denver Broncos heading to Louisiana to face the New Orleans Saints on "Thursday Night Football." The Sunday slate features 12 games, starting with the New England Patriots taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars from London.
Perhaps the highlight is a Super Bowl LVIII rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. The Sunday night game has Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jetsmeeting the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Week 7 concludes with a "Monday Night Football" doubleheader featuring the Baltimore Ravens against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+) and the Los Angeles Chargers against the Arizona Cardinals (8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Our team takes an early look at Week 7 odds to find value before lines move later in the week:
Joe Fortenbaugh's first bet:New Orleans Saints-Denver Broncos under 37.5
Last week: Bengals -3.5 over Giants. Line closed at Bengals -4.5. Bengals won 17-7
The number 37 is key when it comes to betting NFL totals, so let's get ahead of the pending move and lock in 37.5 now because I see this closing at 36.5 or lower. Since 2017, Thursday night totals of 40 or less are 20-7 to the under, which is a highly profitable hit rate of 74%. I know New Orleans just got torched for 51 points and 594 total yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but this Denver offense is a dink-and-dunk outfit that can't stretch the field like the Buccaneers. For those interested in the derivatives market, it's worth noting that Denver has been held scoreless in the first half of three of its six contests.
Tyler Fulghum's first bet: Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This is a "dead zone" spread between the key numbers of 4 and 6, so let's buy it now before it moves to a full touchdown spread in the Rams favor. Why might it move L.A.'s way? Well, they're coming off a bye and it's completely possible that we get news this week that WR Cooper Kupp is ready to return to action. He could be joined by any one of three starting-caliber offensive linemen in Jonah Jackson, Steve Avila and Joe Noteboom. L.A. is 1-4, but outside of the Week 2 blowout in Arizona, all of its games have come down to the final possession. The Raiders, meanwhile, are struggling with losses of 16 and 19 points so far in October. Jump on this now before the Rams become a bigger favorite.
Anita Marks' first bet: Minnesota Vikings (-2) vs. Detroit Lions
Last week: Chargers-Broncos under 37. Line closed at 37.5. Chargers won 23-16
The Lions destroyed the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, holding Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense to nine points. However, Detroit lost its best defensive player, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, and is dealing with other significant injuries on defense. The Vikings are coming off a bye week after a trip to London and look to stay undefeated at home. They have had plenty of time to game plan for this important division showdown. The line opened up at -1/-1.5 across the market.
Seth Walder's first bet: Arizona Cardinals(+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Last week: 49ers to win the NFC West (-105). Current odds -225.
Entering Sunday, the Cardinals had played the hardest strength of schedule in the NFL, per FPI (and then faced the Green Bay Packers). The Chargers, meanwhile, had faced the 29th-hardest schedule before squaring off against the Denver Broncos. The bet here is that the sharp contrast in opponents faced affects the general view of both teams. Plus, it's pretty great to get a home underdog that has been the better offensive team this season entering "Sunday Night Football." Arizona ranks 11th in offensive EPA per play while the Chargers rank 20th.
Andre Snellings' first bet:Washington Commanders (-7.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Last week: Commanders-Ravens over 51.5 points. Line closed at 50.5. Ravens won 30-23
The Commanders lost a tough one-score game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday but still performed at a high level against a really good team. The loss broke a streak of four straight wins, the last two of which had been by a combined 49 points. The Panthers, on the other hand, had one sugar-high performance in Week 3 when Andy Dalton took over for the struggling Bryce Young, but otherwise have been blitzed in every game since. Carolina lost its first two games by a combined 60 points and has lost its past three by a combined 54 points. None of the Panthers' losses have been by less than 10 points, and only one of their losses has been by less than 18. The Panthers allow the most points in the NFL (33.8 PPG allowed, 32nd) while scoring among the fewest (17.8 PPG, 27th). Meanwhile, the Commanders have one of the most prolific offenses in the league, scoring 29.7 PPG (T-2nd) and will be playing at home. This has all the hallmarks of a game the Commanders should win by double figures.
Pam Maldonado's first bet: Texas Longhorns (-3.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Last week: Colorado +5.5. Line closed at +3.5. Kansas State won 31-28.
Texas is perhaps the most complete team in the nation. The Longhorns have an explosive offense, quarterback depth and a stifling defense. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are dealing with several key injuries, including potential absences of linebacker Smael Mondon Jr., center Jared Wilson, and offensive guard Tate Ratledge. These injuries could impact Georgia's performance on both sides of the ball. While Georgia is certainly a formidable opponent, it simply doesn't have the necessary parts to contain an elite Texas offense.
