NFL Week 4 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

The Week 4 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we've got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts -- Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder -- give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let's get into the full Week 4 slate, including the red-hot Vikings visiting the Packers and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens hosting Josh Allen and the Bills. It all culminates with a pair of "Monday Night Football" matchups -- the Titans visit the Dolphins(7:30 p.m. ET) on ESPN, and the Lions host the Seahawks (8:15 p.m. ET) on ABC/ESPN+. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:

NO-ATL | LAR-CHI | MIN-GB

PIT-IND | DEN-NYJ | PHI-TB

CIN-CAR | JAX-HOU | WSH-ARI

NE-SF | CLE-LV | KC-LAC

BUF-BAL | TEN-MIA | SEA-DET

Thursday: DAL-NYG

Saints (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ATL -2.5 (42.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to watch: The Saints are missing Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy(groin) for at least a month after he was placed on IR this week. Running backAlvin Kamara is also banged up (hips/ribs), and Cesar Ruizis dealing with a knee injury. The Saints need to get their run game going again after their worst offensive output of the seasonagainst the Eagles last week, but they'll have to do it with a host of injuries on the offensive side. -- Katherine Terrell

Falcons storyline to watch: Can the Falcons' running game get back on track after Bijan Robinson mustered only 1.9 yards per carry against the Chiefs in Week 3? Since the beginning of 2023, Robinson has amassed 950 yards on runs outside the tackles, second only to Christian McCaffrey (1,018), per NFL Next Gen Stats. But the Saints have been strong in that department, allowing only 142 yards on rushes outside the tackles this season, the ninth-lowest total in the league. -- Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: The Falcons have six third-down conversions this season, which is the fewest in the NFL. Their 22% third-down conversion rate is the fourth worst in the league.

Bold prediction: Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss will lead the league in combined tackles in Week 4. The Saints are the most run-heavy team in the league, and my tackles model gives him the third-highest projection of any player this week. -- Walder

Injuries: Saints | Falcons

Fantasy X factor: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. The tight end position in fantasy has been as barren as an apocalyptic wasteland this season. Pitts has just eight receptions and 24.6 fantasy points so far, but he could be in for a breakout against the Saints. Last week, New Orleans gave up 10 receptions and 27 fantasy points to tight end Dallas Goedert. So far, the Saints have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: This is the first time the Falcons are favored over the Saints since Week 3 of 2018. The Saints were favored in 11 straight meetings. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Falcons 22, Saints 21

Moody's pick: Falcons 27, Saints 21

Walder's pick: Saints 29, Falcons 20

FPI prediction: NO, 51.1% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads:'We'll learn from it': How Saints plan to bounce back after loss vs. Eagles... Coach: Saints aren't dirty despite Eagles' claims

Rams (1-2) at Bears (1-2)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CHI -3 (41.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to watch: Rams QB Matthew Stafford needs 223 passing yards to pass Eli Manning's 57,023 mark for the 10th most in NFL history. In his career, he has averaged 274.3 passing yards per game against Chicago, the most all time by a quarterback with 10 games played against a team, according to ESPN Research. Stafford might have his work cut out, though, as it's the second week in a row the Rams won't have star receivers Puka Nacua (knee) or Cooper Kupp (ankle). -- Sarah Barshop

Bears storyline to watch: Bears WR Keenan Allen returned to practice for the first time in two weeks while recovering from a heel injury. Allen aggravated a preexisting injury during his Bears debut in Week 1 (11 targets, 4 catches, 29 yards versus Tennessee) and could provide an important layer to the passing offense against the Rams. "It's going to be great for our offense," quarterback Caleb Williams said. "It's just something else that the defense has to worry about throughout this week and then obviously on game day ... His special talent of getting open in a phone booth is going to be great for us." -- Courtney Cronin

Stat to know:Rams running backKyren Williams has had six straight games with a rushing TD dating back to last season, which is tied for the third-longest streak in franchise history.

Bold prediction: Bears defensive tackle Andrew Billings will record at least half a sack for the first time since 2022. Billings is quietly off to a nice start rushing the passer, with a 21% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (fourth best at the position). He has never cracked double digits in a season! -- Walder

Injuries: Rams | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver DJ Moore. He had a season-high 8 receptions, 78 yards and 15.2 fantasy points in Week 3. Moore leads the team in routes run and should stay busy against a Rams defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget:The Rams are 4-10-1 against the spread as road underdogs since 2022.Read more.

Kahler's pick: Rams 24, Bears 17

Moody's pick: Rams 31, Bears 19

Walder's pick: Bears 23, Rams 20

FPI prediction: CHI, 49.9% (by an average of 0.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Williams' mom helped him achieve his NFL dream ... How a failed goal-line series reflects the Bears' struggles

Vikings (3-0) at Packers (2-1)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: GB -2.5 (43.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings have taken five offensive snaps this season while trailing, by far the lowest total in the NFL. (The average is 88.) That has surely helped QB Sam Darnold's transition back into the starting lineup. The next step could come as soon as Sunday. How will the Vikings play if they are behind for an extended period of a game? Do they have what it takes to make up a deficit, especially in a rivalry road game? -- Kevin Seifert

Packers storyline to watch: While the Vikings lead the NFL with 16 sacks, they might want to think twice about blitzing if Packers QB Jordan Love (knee) plays. Minnesota blitzed Love on 58% of his dropbacks the last time the two teams played (Week 17 of last season), the highest rate he has ever been blitzed. Love posted the fifth-best Total QBR (83) in any start during his career. -- Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The Vikings won at Green Bay in Week 8 last season. They haven't won consecutive road games at Lambeau Field since winning three straight from 1991 to 1993.

Bold prediction: Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed scores a touchdown. Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. is off to a rough start, allowing 2.2 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's almost a full yard above the average for the position. Although Murphy lines up all over, he does spend time in the slot, which means he'll surely have some snaps marking Reed. -- Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Packers

Fantasy X factor: Vikings running back Aaron Jones. He started his professional career with the Packers but left this offseason after Green Bay asked him to take a pay cut. So yes, I'm buying into the revenge game narrative. Jones has been phenomenal for a Vikings offense that ranks fourth in points per game (26). Also, the Packers' defense is struggling, sitting at 25th in run stop win rate (29.1%). Jones has had 16 or more touches and 19 or more fantasy points in two of three games. See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 8-2 ATS on the road since the start of last season (9-2 ATS in past 11 road games). Read more.

Kahler's pick: Vikings 30, Packers 24

Moody's pick: Packers 27, Vikings 26

Walder's pick: Packers 27, Vikings 24

FPI prediction: GB, 55.5% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jones eyes Lambeau Leap in first visit vs. Packers ... Packers' defense breaking out behind McKinney's 3 INTs

Steelers (3-0) at Colts (1-2)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PIT -2 (40.5 O/U)

Steelers storyline to watch: Through three weeks, the Colts have only two more total rushing yards than the Steelers, but Indy's run game has been far more efficient. Led by running backJonathan Taylor, the Colts are averaging 5.4 yards per rush and have scored five rushing touchdowns. The Steelers, meanwhile, are ranked second with 108 rush attempts but are averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. After neutralizing J.K. Dobbins and the Chargers in Week 3, the Steelers' run defense will be tasked with slowing down another formidable attack. Pittsburgh could also potentially be without RB Jaylen Warren, who's dealing with a knee injury. -- Brooke Pryor

Colts storyline to watch: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has had a consistent impact in games he has played against the Colts. In five career meetings with Indianapolis, Watt has produced 5.5 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 15 tackles and 2 forced fumbles. In their last meeting (Week 15 of last season), Watt notched a pair of sacks and two tackles for loss. Meanwhile, the Colts' offensive line is off to an impressive start, currently ranking sixth in pass block win rate (65.5%). Indianapolis has allowed just four sacks, tied for third best. -- Stephen Holder

Stat to know:Watt currently has 99.5 sacks in 107 career games. If he records another half-sack within his next five games, he will be the second-fastest player to reach 100 career sacks since the stat became official in 1982. Hall of Famer Reggie White reached the milestone in 96 games.

Bold prediction: Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. will record more than 90 receiving yards. I predicted a version of this last week and it fell flat, but I'm coming back because the numbers are too compelling. Pittman Jr. has converted just 23% of his targeted air yards into completed air yards, fifth lowest for a receiver with at least 45 routes this season. He's not that guy, so we should expect positive regression. -- Walder

Injuries: Steelers | Colts

Fantasy X factor: Steelers quarterback Justin Fields. He put up a season-high 18.4 fantasy points against the Chargers on Sunday. Since entering the league in 2021, he has 11 games with both a passing and rushing touchdown, ranking third behind Josh Allen (21) and Jalen Hurts (17). Fields should find success against a Colts team that has allowed an average of 16.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Also, Indianapolis has given up the second-most rushing yards per game to opponents (179). See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget:Since 2018, the Colts are 6-10 ATS as home underdogs (1-8 ATS as home underdogs of 3 points or less).Read more.

Kahler's pick: Colts 20, Steelers 10

Moody's pick: Steelers 27, Colts 17

Walder's pick: Colts 24, Steelers 19

FPI prediction: PIT, 53.1% (by an average of 1.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Next man up: Herbig coming up clutch ... Colts QB Richardson struggling for accuracy

Broncos (1-2) at Jets (2-1)

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -7.5 (39.5 O/U)

Broncos storyline to watch: When opposing defenses consistently pressure QB Bo Nix, he has been erratic -- throwing two interceptions in each of Denver's two losses. But when largely unencumbered, as he was in this past Sunday's win against Tampa Bay, Nix completed 69% of his throws with no sacks and no turnovers. The Jets sack quarterbacks on a league-high 16.8% of pass attempts and do it largely with four-man pressures. That means Nix will likely have to decode crowded coverage while under duress. How Nix fares with that will have a lot to say about whether Denver's uptick on offense in Tampa was a one-week respite or a sign of better things to come. -- Jeff Legwold

Jets storyline to watch: The Aaron Rodgers-led offense is much improved from last season even though WRGarrett Wilson (15 catches, 150 yards, 1 TD) has been relatively quiet. Each week, Wilson draws the opponent's top cornerback, with safety help over the top. The Jets fully expect the Broncos to use star corner Pat Surtain II on Wilson for a majority of the snaps. When they faced each other last season, Surtain was the nearest defender on Wilson on 20 of 29 pass routes, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Wilson was held to one catch for 12 yards on those plays. If teams want to focus on Wilson, Rodgers can rely on others such as tight end Tyler Conklin. -- Rich Cimini

Stat to know:Nix has two rushing touchdowns and no passing TDs, making him the only starting QB this season with multiple rushing scores and zero passing scores through the first three games.

Bold prediction: Jets right tackle Olu Fashanu will record a pass block win rate under 80% in his starting debut in place of the injured Morgan Moses(knee). Most rookie tackles, even first-rounders like Fashanu, struggle their first season. Fashanu is also squaring up against LBJonathon Cooper, who is off to a nice start with a 21% pass rush win rate at edge (14th best). -- Walder

Injuries: Broncos | Jets

Fantasy X factor:Conklin. The Jets tight end had a career-high 93 yards and scored 14.3 fantasy points in Week 3. He's in a great spot to repeat that versus the Broncos. Why? The Broncos' defense shut down Bucs WRMike Evans in Week 3, and Wilson will get similar attention. That leaves more opportunities for Conklin, who has run the third-most routes on the team. In regular-season games where he has had at least six targets, Conklin has averaged 14.0 fantasy points. See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget:The Broncos are 3-4 outright when getting at least 5 points under coach Sean Payton (4-3 ATS).Read more.

Kahler's pick: Jets 21, Broncos 16

Moody's pick: Jets 24, Broncos 16

Walder's pick: Jets 23, Broncos 16

FPI prediction: NYJ, 69.9% (by an average of 8.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Badie emerges to boost struggling Broncos rushing attack ... The Killer B's: How the Jets' RB duo is balancing offense ... How Broncos' pass rush has emerged ... Rodgers: Jets need to prove they can handle prosperity

Eagles (2-1) at Buccaneers (2-1)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -2 (42.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts is posting some of the best passing numbers of his career early in the season. He has completed 70.6% of his throws -- well above his career average of 63.8%. He is fourth in passing yards (772), first in lowest off-target percentage (6.5%) and has a QBR of 60.9. The one issue is turnovers: He is tied for the second-most giveaways in the NFL through three weeks with six. With receiversA.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) both dealing with injuries, it's imperative that Hurts plays clean football against the Bucs. -- Tim McManus

Buccaneers storyline to watch: A 26-7 pummeling by the Broncos thwarted the Bucs' hopes of a 3-0 start, and now the Eagles are hoping to enact the same type of postseason revenge the Bucs got on the Lions two weeks ago. The good news for Tampa Bay is that it might get back some key players, as right tackle Luke Goedeke (concussion) and defensive tackle Vita Vea (knee) practiced this week. So far this season, the Bucs have mustered only a league-low two quarterback sacks, and they surrendered 12 sacks over the past two weeks. The Bucs need to regain control of the trenches as they enter their most challenging stretch of the season. -- Jenna Laine

Stat to know:Bucs receiver Chris Godwin has recorded a receiving touchdown in each of the first three games of this season; he is seeking to join Mike Evans (2020) as the only Buccaneers players with a touchdown reception in the team's first four games of a season.

Bold prediction:Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has his third 100-plus-yard rushing game in four tries. The Bucs rank 28th in EPA per play, and with Brown, Smith and Lane Johnson(concussion) all possibly missing the game, Philadelphia is going to have to find another way to move the ball. -- Walder

Injuries: Eagles | Buccaneers

Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Godwin. He has seen eight or more targets and scored at least 17.3 fantasy points in three straight games, working mostly from the slot. He faced the Commanders and Lions in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively, who both struggle against slot receivers. Godwin then capitalized in Week 3 against a Broncos secondary focused on Evans. Now in Week 4, he's up against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Eagles have covered eight straight games when the line is between plus-3 and minus-3. Read more.

Kahler's pick: Eagles 28, Buccaneers 21

Moody's pick: Eagles 34, Buccaneers 24

Walder's pick: Eagles 20, Buccaneers 17

FPI prediction: PHI, 61.2% (by an average of 4.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Hurts hopes to buck his trend of poor performance vs. Tampa ... How the Bucs rebound after 'complete team collapse' in Week 3

Bengals (0-3) at Panthers (1-2)

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CIN -4.5 (46.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to watch: This will be QB Andy Dalton's fourth game against the Bengals, whom he played for from 2011 to 2019. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has played a blend of zone and man coverage against him in the previous meetings, and Dalton's QBR is significantly worse when Cincinnati is in zone coverage (31). Last week, however, Washington's Jayden Daniels feasted on Cincinnati's zone with a 95.8 QBR, the second-best mark against the Bengals since 2020. -- Ben Baby

Panthers storyline to watch: Dalton was stellar last week with three touchdown passes and 319 yards passing in his first start of the season, giving life to what had been a lifeless offense with Bryce Young under center. But recent history doesn't suggest that he will put up big numbers this week. Thirteen QBs who didn't begin the 2023 season as the starter won their first start last season. Of those, only 10 got a second start, and they were 1-9 in their second game. -- David Newton

Stat to know: Even with a 36-22 win in Week 3, the Panthers' minus-46 point differential is the worst in the NFL this season.

Bold prediction: The Bengals will put up 34-plus points. Offense has not been Cincinnati's issue -- the team ranks seventh in EPA per play on that side of the ball -- and it is going against a weak Carolina defense. I think lots of points will be scored, but the Bengals will pull away and win easily. -- Walder

Injuries: Bengals | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. Dalton revitalized the offense against the Raiders, and his presence definitely helped Hubbard, who racked up 27.9 fantasy points with 26 touches. Hubbard also proved he can be a threat as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bengals struggled defensively against the Commanders on Monday night, giving up 356 yards and 38 points. See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are the third team since the 1970 merger to lose as at least 7.5-point favorites twice in the first three weeks (2012 Saints, 1978 Patriots). Read more.

Kahler's pick: Panthers 28, Bengals 24

Moody's pick: Bengals 31, Panthers 24

Walder's pick: Bengals 37, Panthers 20

FPI prediction: CIN, 64.9% (by an average of 6.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Burrow looks to lead 0-3 Bengals more with his voice ...