Super Bowl LVIII betting roundtable: Which game props should you bet on?
There are so many game props available for Super Bowl LVIII. So which are the best to bet on leading up to the big game?
NFL betting experts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder, Anita Marks, Kevin Pulsifer and Aaron Schatz explain the ones they like most, and Mackenzie Kraemer provides his top betting nuggets.
Odds by ESPN BET
As you look at this game and how you think it's going to go, is there a prop that fits into that narrative?
Schatz: I'm siding with the OVER on the entire game. Yes, these defenses are very good. But the 49ers were the ninth-best offense of the past 43 years according to my DVOA ratings and the Chiefs' offense was a little underrated, they still ranked eighth despite their issues. In particular, I like the over for the first half. Both of these defenses played much better after halftime during the regular season. The Chiefs' offense ranked seventh in the first half of games and 15th in the second half. (The 49ers were first in both halves). Overall, I would expect the offenses to come out with some scoring and then the defenses to adjust, so I'll take first-half total points OVER 23.5 (Even).
Walder: I like UNDER 4.5 total sacks (-130) in the game. I've added a new model to handle this question and it feels strongly about the under, pricing it at -162. I think it makes sense. Patrick Mahomes is elite at sack avoidance (3.7% sack rate, second only to Josh Allen) and Brock Purdy (5.5%) is better than average, too.
Fulghum: I like the Chiefs to jump to an early lead due to the massive experience advantage at QB with Mahomes and Andy Reid's success building game plans with extra days of rest. However, I don't think the 49ers will wilt. I think they've proved they can respond to adversity. So let's have some fun with a tremendous LONGSHOT prop: 1st Quarter/Halftime Result - Chiefs/Draw (+3000). That's right, the Chiefs have a first-quarter lead then the Niners claw back to tie it before Usher takes the stage for halftime. Let's say the Chiefs are up 7-3 after the first and we're tied 13-13 at half.
Pulsifer: Chiefs to win First Quarter by shutout (+320). Tyler and I seem to be aligned on the game script across the board here, but I'll twist it a bit. Super Bowls have historically started very slowly, with a 1Q pregame total listed at 10 or 10.5. I'd have taken the under there, but this time it's 9.5, so I need to pivot. In the four Kansas City/San Francisco divisional and conference playoff games, there have been 2, 2, 3 and 3 total possessions in the opening quarter. It's very possible that the 49ers see the ball only once in this span, so give me the chalky squares picks of 3-0, 7-0 or 10-0.
Marks: Kansas City to score on its First Drive. K.C. has scored on its first drive in all three playoff games and its first two drives against the Ravens (the best defense in the playoffs). Andy Reid is great at scripting the first series. Mahomes has played in six indoor games and was held below 27 just once.
What other game props do you like?
Walder: This is an extension of my other game prop, but if you're looking for a longshot to root for I show a little value on no sacks in the game at 40-1. My model -- which considers factors such as the quarterbacks' ability to avoid sacks, the quality of the pass rush, the quality of the offensive lines and how often the defenses blitz -- prices this prop at 33-1.
Pulsifer: Largest lead of game UNDER 14.5 points (-125). The Chiefs have had one lead of more than 14 points in their past six games and it came on the final score of the Wild Card round vs. Miami. Going back further, they had only one other lead that big since their Week 10 bye: against the Patriots (for only seven minutes). I don't expect either team to run away with this game, and I like the under overall. Getting the 14 here is key, and I wouldn't take it at 13.5.
Marks: Kansas City OVER 23.5 Total Points. K.C. has had two weeks to prepare for this 49ers' defense, which that is severely overrated. San Francisco struggles against the run and play-action. Mahomes is 4-0 at Allegiant Stadium, and averages 27 PPG indoors. The Chiefs defense will help with short field opportunities for Mahomes and crew.
Pulsifer and Dopp: Tails never fails (+100).
Top game props betting nuggets
A player to score an "Octopus" is 16-1 at ESPN BET, meaning a player scored a touchdown and 2-point conversion on the same drive. That has happened 11 times this season. The only octopus in Super Bowl history came last season when Jalen Hurts accomplished it. The last Chiefs octopus was by Mahomes last season, while no 49ers player has had one since 2016 (Carlos Hyde).
The odds for the shortest touchdown are set at 1.5 yards (under -150). The shortest touchdown has been 1 yard in four straight Super Bowls, six of the past eight Super Bowls, and eight of the last 11 Super Bowls.
The 49ers are -110 to score more points in the first half than in the second half and overtime (-120). The second half has had fewer points in eight straight Chiefs games and 13 of the last 14 Chiefs games. The second half has had fewer points in 11 of 19 49ers games this season (one push).
The 49ers are +200 to score a touchdown on their opening drive. The 49ers scored touchdowns on opening drives 10 times during the regular season, three more than any other team. They have not scored on their opening drive in either playoff game.
Both teams are -115 to make the shortest field goal. 49ers kicker Jake Moody has attempted just two field goals less than 30 yards in his past 13 games. In that same span, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has kicked 10 field goals that short, including seven in his past five games.
